Чего ожидать?
Nov. 26th, 2020 11:19 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
chuka_lisНу вот, не одной мне приходят в голову мысли о том, что "коллективный иммунитет"- это странная надежда, так же как и обещаемое некоторыми популяризаторами снижение вирулентности коронавируса в ближайшей перспективе.
Вышла статья, где почти об этом же- но с цифрами и обыгрыванием на модели. Об эволюции эпидемий респираторных заболеваний в зависимости от пары факторов.
Выводы авторов:
The evolution of human respiratory epidemics appears to be often kinetically constrained and a reduction in virulence should not be assumed. Our findings imply that, without continued public health intervention, SARS-CoV-2 is likely to continue presenting a substantial disease burden. The existence of a parameter regime admitting endemic equilibrium suggests that herd immunity is unachievable. However, we demonstrate that even partial isolation of symptomatic individuals can have a major effect not only by reducing the number of fatalities in the short term but also by potentially changing the evolutionary trajectory of the virus towards reduced virulence.
Вышла статья, где почти об этом же- но с цифрами и обыгрыванием на модели. Об эволюции эпидемий респираторных заболеваний в зависимости от пары факторов.
Выводы авторов:
The evolution of human respiratory epidemics appears to be often kinetically constrained and a reduction in virulence should not be assumed. Our findings imply that, without continued public health intervention, SARS-CoV-2 is likely to continue presenting a substantial disease burden. The existence of a parameter regime admitting endemic equilibrium suggests that herd immunity is unachievable. However, we demonstrate that even partial isolation of symptomatic individuals can have a major effect not only by reducing the number of fatalities in the short term but also by potentially changing the evolutionary trajectory of the virus towards reduced virulence.
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no subject
Date: 2020-11-27 09:49 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-11-28 02:43 am (UTC)да в общем и продолжается- а уж отличия от того кто как может преподавать в новом формате.