Через тернии к...
Dec. 25th, 2020 08:41 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
chuka_lisО том, какие сложности возникнут при достижении "коллективного" иммунитета к ковиду путем вакцинирования- если он не держится достаточно долго, есть такое вот мнение (и моделирование).
The percentage of the population that must be vaccinated in year 1 is much larger than the percentage that must be vaccinated once the system has stabilised after a few years, since most of the population will be susceptible as mass immunisation starts, but after a few years, hopefully, a high proportion will be immunised such that effective herd immunity is created. What is clear from our estimates based on the assumptions that efficacy is satisfactory (>80%) but duration of protection is short (1–2 years), is that a large proportion of the total population would need to be vaccinated if there is to be any chance of getting herd immunity to block the continued transmission of SARS-CoV-2. If the vaccine is protective over a longer duration than natural infection, then our estimates will be too pessimistic.
Я лично думаю, что иммунитет после вакцинирования будет не столь эффективен, чтобы предотвращать заражение и передачу- во всяком случае, в испытаниях вакцин на обезьянах, они и заражались, и выделяли вирус в достаточном для заражения других количестве.
The percentage of the population that must be vaccinated in year 1 is much larger than the percentage that must be vaccinated once the system has stabilised after a few years, since most of the population will be susceptible as mass immunisation starts, but after a few years, hopefully, a high proportion will be immunised such that effective herd immunity is created. What is clear from our estimates based on the assumptions that efficacy is satisfactory (>80%) but duration of protection is short (1–2 years), is that a large proportion of the total population would need to be vaccinated if there is to be any chance of getting herd immunity to block the continued transmission of SARS-CoV-2. If the vaccine is protective over a longer duration than natural infection, then our estimates will be too pessimistic.
Я лично думаю, что иммунитет после вакцинирования будет не столь эффективен, чтобы предотвращать заражение и передачу- во всяком случае, в испытаниях вакцин на обезьянах, они и заражались, и выделяли вирус в достаточном для заражения других количестве.
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